Losing eight games naturally brings out calls to fire the coach. That is simply the business of college football.
At the same time, others fear change or allow personal feelings toward a person to outweigh the needs of the institution. These people will defend a coach, but they rarely raise solid business oriented arguments to make their case.
I try to remain detached and view it as strictly business; I generally view the person independent of their job performance. There is a case to be made in favor of Steve Roberts and since his strongest supporters are for the most part doing a terrible job of making the case. I am going to lay it out for you.
I will not tell you about his church attendance, because it isn’t relevant. I’ve never seen him in my church nor have I attended his, so I don’t know anything about it. I won’t tell you he is a great guy, because honestly, I’ve not had a lot of personal interaction with him and what I’ve had would at best be described as a mixed bag. Graduation rates and academic success while important are not the key elements of his job. Intercollegiate football is too expensive to turn out an average of 19 or 20 graduates out of a signing class of 25 for it be determining factor.
The first point in favor of Steve Roberts is that this year appears to be an aberration. While he has never been able to go into a signing day touting more wins than losses at ASU, Arkansas State has with one exception performed better than this one season. When you are playing your third and fourth center, there is little reason to feel like you can meet pre-season expectations. While ASU not achieved at a high level under Coach Roberts, this level of a collapse is not the norm.
Second, this year realistically turned on the fact that one recruiting class (2007) was basically a bust with offensive linemen. Next season ASU returns virtually the entire offensive line and across the board, with the exception of defensive line and wide receiver, the bulk of production returns next season. Corey Leonard will be gone but Ryan Aplin has a higher efficiency rating and averages nearly a yard more per pass attempted, in large part due to a higher completion percentage and has a higher yard per play average. He is likely to be pushed hard in Spring and Fall camp by Butterfield. The talent is in place for success and retention means no significant disruption in scheme.
Third, the schedule is liable to be more favorable next year. By all accounts, there are two road trips for dollars and four conference road trips. We know that WKU, ULM, and Louisville will be under first year head coaches. The home slate will be four league games, Louisville, and likely an FCS.
Finally, the financial situation comes into play. Our neighbors Memphis and WKU both pulled the trigger early to get a jump on the search process and both have completed it. Both were expected to try to make hires that would make a splash. On a local level, they were successful but I don’t believe either has caused many people on the national scene to think they clearly made great hires. They hired guys with ties to the programs who may well understand their specific needs enough to be successful but they didn’t make a splash outside their fan bases. They learned that the cash infusion into the top programs has created a new environment where an assistant at a top program can legitimately consider being a career assistant a good option.
ASU can change for the sake of change and while the odds are against it, a good hire can be made at the low end of the pay scale (see the MAC, Troy and MTSU). The higher up the pay scale you go, the more candidates you get a chance to talk seriously with. I have my doubts that ASU is prepared to go into the $500,000 and up range of C-USA caliber hire. If we are going to hire on the cheap, what is the rush?
More importantly what is the upside? Will tickets be a harder sell next year? Of course but we set a record attendance last year coming off a losing season, there was little bounce off last year’s improved record and win over Texas A&M this year. Start well and you won’t notice the difference in season ticket sales. This year you got bit hard by the students having no place to stay for the final game but that only cost you a little in concession money. Throw in fans stuck with family plans and hunting and a bad final crowd was assured. Play the game a week earlier and average attendance doesn’t fall 3,800, it ends up down more like 1,200.
If attendance falls next year, let’s say to a 15,000 average. Not every lost admission costs you money. Some of that is student admissions. Likewise not every gain results in cash either due to students. If attendance falls like that, you’ve got to make a hire that results in about 5,000 more ticket buyers per game than you would have had for the move to make financial sense. Not drawing a Thanksgiving weekend game will help but one good rainstorm in September and there is no chance you come out ahead.
What would it take for me to feel confident in next season?
Number one, beat WKU. A loss to the ‘Toppers makes next season a hard sell with Clint Conque and staff knocking on some of the same doors pointing out the comparative scores. It allows ASU to tout how the young guys rallied the team and salvaged the end of the year. There is some built-in excitement over of a QB battle.
Number two, I don’t believe in it but one of the expectations placed on a troubled coach is to make a public display that a problem has been recognized and steps are being taken to address it by replacing some of the assistants. I happen to think that you hire a head coach to make the decisions about assistants and if you don’t like those decisions, you deal with the guy making the decision. I also understand how the game is played and tradition mandates offering up assistants as the cost of remaining employed when embattled. See Todd Dodge at UNT for the most recent episode of this game.
Number three, Coach Roberts seems to be a dedicated student of the game. He can usually tell you the percentages of success in various situations. He obviously takes time to read and study the various reports people do regarding statistical analysis. The hardest person to evaluate is you. Take a different approach. Break down the first six games of 2006, 2007, and 2008. The combined record was 11-7 with a 1-3 record against schools from the BCS AQ leagues. The conference record was 5-1. Now compare to the final six games of each of those years. The record was 6-12 with two losses to BCS AQ schools and a 6-9 conference record. Get a full understanding of why you were successful at one point and not the other and commit to repeating what made it work. The perception sitting in the stands is of two different teams, one that is fairly free-wheeling and demonstrating a lot of variety, mixing things up, and trying some low percentage plays in the hope of breaking a big one compared to a squad that is using a smaller group of plays content to play a field position game built around shortening the game by keeping the clock rolling. To the fan, when the leaves change colors ASU doesn’t look like it is trying the same things as early in the season. Examine what you’ve done that works and do more of it.
Finally, an immovable bar has to be set for next season. That means a public pronouncement of support for Coach Roberts and the players that includes a statement of expectation. Doesn’t have to be stated as do or die, but the standard should be set.
Sun Tzu counseled to know when to fight and when not to fight. I believe when the cost of change outweighs the likely benefit, you sit and wait. Beat WKU and you are likely not hurt as bad in sales as many expect, lose and all bets are off.
The probability is that if Coach Roberts is retained and makes the customary offering up of assistants, you have a team that will likely post six wins but requires better luck than it had this year to achieve a greater total. If you make a change, you have a team that will likely post six wins but requires better luck than it had this year to achieve a greater total.
The smart play is to devote the next year to improving your available resources. If it breaks well, you’ve saved the money and can allocate those resources to meet other needs. If it breaks poorly you have weakened the resistance to change and have greater resources to make a real impact change.
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