TribalGrounds @ ArkSt.com

If you are a stats nut then you need to check out “Statistically Speaking”. This little gem of a web site can put you into a coma just like college algebra did if you start thinking too hard about the numbers. The thing is it is well written and it gets to the bottom line.

Last year that bottom line was that ASU coming off a 6-6 year and Middle Tennessee coming off a bowl trip would be both be weaker in the 2007 season compared to 2006. For the teams to improve, ULM and FIU were both tabbed and while FIU was better, they weren’t worlds better and ULM did improve enough to beat Bama but not to the top of the conference.

This year the site anticipates FAU to be a huge favorite in the Sun Belt (don’t need a lot of stats to figure that one out). Middle Tennessee is expected to slip a bit more this year.

The big improvement this year?

Arkansas State gets the nod. The skinny being that if the turnover margin is improved, the offensive line jells and the Tribe can win at home, especially against FAU and can take the road games against UNT and FIU, that the Red Wolves will be in New Orleans.

As a bonus, the site also declares the new Red Wolves logo to be much cooler than the old “letterhead joe” logo.

The good folks at College Football News recently previewed the schedule for Memphis football Tigers. They didn’t earn any friends among Arkansas State fans with their comment.

Tough dates against Ole Miss and Louisville are offset by relative layups against Nicholls State and Arkansas State.

It could be that being football guys they confused their terminology.

NCAA Championship Game. Memphis leads Kansas by 9 with 2:12 left. The Jayhawks roar back but Memphis can still put it away. Instead they miss four out of five free throws. Kansas ties and wins in overtime.

Sounds familiar.

2006. Memphis leads 23-20 with six seconds left, ASU 53 yards away hits the TD pass for the win.

2007. Memphis leads by 25. Arkansas State scores 29 unanswered points in less than 16 minutes for the win.

Maybe the folks at CFN meant to write… Based on past history, the date with Arkansas State should be a free throw for Memphis.

Fans get ready to welcome John Brady as the new head coach of the ASU Red Wolves.

This is a name that really had me struggling about what to think.

Talking to LSU fans and members of the media in Louisiana, he seemed way too toxic to touch. He has a reputation of being aloof. He has struggled to sign players willing to stick around for four years under hard-nosed coach.

But a chance to hire a coach from a Final Four team just a few years ago is tempting, especially a coach who rebuilt a team devastated by probation and who was successful at a program with an even smaller budget when he was at Samford is tempting. Other things emerged from those conversations. Dedication to team discipline, dedication to academics, solid coaching chops. I understand ASU’s pursuit.

Not too long ago Chancellor Potts said he didn’t see any reason why ASU couldn’t be like Memphis. We are in the same area. We draw from areas loaded with basketball fans.
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Gary Parrish of CBS Sportsline has written about the Gonzaga miracle. Give it a read. There was no miracle at Gonzaga, just common sense and a commitment to winning.

Parrish outlines the four steps of the Gonzaga plan.

1. Find the right coach.
This is what ASU is undertaking to do right now. The first step is to have someone who can bring in talent good enough to win and can motivate and lead that talent. In many ways this is the single most difficult step in the process. A winner at one place may have had just the right situation. The hot prospect assistant may not be able to run a program. It is the largest gamble in the process.

2. Make a strong financial commitment to that coach. You have to have dollars to make other jobs less attractive. A $300,000 salary reduces the number of jobs that look better. $500,000 reduces that number more and $750,000 reduces it even more. If a coach is happy he’s harder to move. A 50% raise tempted Dana Altman but in the end it wasn’t enough.

3. Build first class facilities. The Convocation Center used to be that but a serious remodel is needed. The good news is that it isn’t so urgent that it has to be done now.

4. Increase the budget across the board. Spending to achieve success isn’t just about salary. Two equally talented coaches are going to have similar results at similar programs even if one is making twice as much if they have the same recruiting budget, the same schedule budget, the same travel budget, the same money for scouting resources, the same training resources, and the same ability to provide for summer school and academic assistance.

The ASU Battle Plan.
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The great catchphrase from the old TV show the “A Team” was “I just love it when a plan comes together.”

Whatever plans ASU may have had regarding hiring a new basketball coach have failed to come together. Nolan Richardson has changed the game of hiring a new coach.

Nolan Richardson has essentially declared himself the front-runner for the job with his recent interview with the Associated Press. With all the applications routing through Carr Sports Associates, there is no one who will be able to provide evidence to the contrary unless someone else gets the job.

The problem for ASU is answering these questions. “Why not hire Nolan Richardson?” “Why did you think ______ was a better candidate than Nolan Richardson?” “Why did you turn down a coach with a juco national title, an NIT title, and an NCAA Title to hire someone who has _________?”
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Opportunity doesn’t knock very often in the Athletic Department at Arkansas State University. The high profile coaching positions tend to be long term affairs. For only the second time in this century, the administration at Arkansas State has a chance to make a statement when filling one of these positions. We have a men’s basketball coaching vacancy. We must make it a priority to hire an African-American head coach.

African-American head coaches are not a novel idea in Arkansas. The four other Universities playing division one athletics have long since broken through this race barrier. Not Arkansas State. Our time has come. Our student body is 18% African-American. The scholarship athletes on our men’s basketball team have historically been over 80% black. Nationally, 57.8% of all division one scholarship basketball players are black, and 25.2% of head coaches follow suit.

We held onto the Indian mascot for as long as possible and recently celebrated our proud heritage on retirement. While it was sad, it was also time. It is long past time to have an African-American head coach in one of our sports. Read more…

Getting news of this coaching search has been challenging. That was a reason for Carr Sports Associates being hired. They act as insulation to make it harder to use the Arkansas Freedom of Information Act to get information. Their hiring though hasn’t had nearly the impact on creating a fog around the process that rank speculation and gossip have had on the search.

I feel fully confident in saying that reports of Nolan Richardson being offered the job are false. I think I know I know where that information came from. I was tempted to run with it but something just didn’t seem to add up. Coach Richardson clearly had a package in mind and the details have been reported by guys as solid as Harry King. In the end no one with real influence on the process was willing to take Nolan.

Right now I believe we may see a coach named relatively soon. I think the real powers that be have found the combination of coaching experience, success and big donor support for a candidate that they want. The candidate’s current employer has to finish its season. Once that has happened if the Sun Belt Tournament is still going on as a courtesy ASU is unlikely to make an announcement until the tournament concludes. I believe March 12 is probably the earliest date for an announcement.
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I had planned to write about the mascot retirement but driving home other matters kept occupying my mind. Mascot retirement will have to wait until I’ve had some sleep.

Watching the basketball game tonight several thoughts kept popping up. The first was the voice of Charles Barkley saying “Turrrbull, Turrbull.”

Other than television and web casts I’ve not seen the Tribe play basketball in about a half decade. I was reminded why I had quit bothering to come to games. We haven’t been fielding a very good product.

Those of you who been making all the games, I don’t know whether to commend your loyalty or condemn your tolerance for lower tier basketball. Both are appropriate.
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I don’t hunt. To me the very idea of hunting sounds like a boring waste of my time. Yet, a hunting story for you.

Once at the barbershop I was reading about some famous bow hunter. Famous enough I’d never heard of him. It was that or reading a copy of SI that I’d read at the doctor’s office months before.

The guy is out on a mountain goat hunt with the natives. They spot a mountain goat and
there’s no way he can get close enough to get a good shot. He is ready to move on but the natives insist he take the shot. He really didn’t want to do it because he thought there was no
chance and he’d look stupid. They insist.

So he makes his best guess of the wind and distance and lets the arrow fly. At first he’s not even sure if he hit or missed. The goat takes a step and falls dead. His shot had sliced the arteries in the neck of the goat.

Sometimes you can’t bag big game without some dumb luck but you’ll never hit a lucky shot unless you shoot.

Maybe ASU won’t bag a coach that makes people say “Wow”, but it is important to at least take a shot.

KAIT, KLRT, and ArkansasSports360.com all confirm that Dickey Nutt has resigned as head coach of the Arkansas State Indians effective immediately.

Sources tell TribalGrounds that Nutt’s resignation came about when the coach met with Athletic Director Dean Lee seeking an extension of his current contract that is set to expire at the end of March. His request was turned down and Nutt tendered his resignation.

Arkansas State will have a press conference at 6:30 tonight.